BRITISH STUDY'S CLAIM 10 MILLION PEOPLE A YEAR COULD DIE BECAUSE OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE DISMISSED AS 'UNRELIABLE'
An official estimate of deaths expected to be caused annually by antimicrobial resistance – cited by the United Nations and world leaders – is “unreliable” and undermines the fight against superbugs, a group scientists has warned.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) arises when micro-organisms that cause an infection survive medicine that is intended to kill them or stop their growth. A figure of “10 million” deaths a year has been widely used to illustrate the dangers of not taking action on AMR, but leading scientists now say it is based on incomplete data and flawed assumptions. The number first appeared in 2014, in the initial report of the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance – a body set up by former Prime Minister David Cameron and headed by the economist Lord Jim O’Neill. The aim of the AMR Review was to analyse the potential impact to human health of growing resistance to antibiotics and antivirals. It warned that without urgent action, by 2050 a further 10 million people around the world would lose their lives to drug-resistant infections – a figure that has been cited for the past two years by media organisations, politicians, the UN, the European Commission, the World Health Organisation, the G7, and many others. The number also has prompted headlines warning of an “antibiotic apocalypse”, in which superbugs would “kill more than cancer” – and a world that’s on the cusp of a “post-antibiotic era”. Now scientists, led by Marlieke de Kraker at the HUG (Geneva University Hospitals), say that while the dangers of the overuse of antibiotics are undisputed, the 2014 death toll estimate does not stand up to scientific scrutiny. In a peer-reviewed article, published in the scientific journal PLOS Medicine, the researchers acknowledge that action is required to fight antibiotic resistance, but recommend that “estimates for such an important, ‘hot’ topic should undergo scrutiny by independent experts before being made publicly available”. “We contend that unreliable global estimates like those provided in the AMR Review potentially undermine, rather than support, the fight against a post-antibiotic era,” the study’s authors conclude. Their findings – revealed today by The Independent – are being covered by the German non-profit news website correctiv.org as part of its long-running investigation into superbugs and the threat they pose to public health. Speaking to correctiv.org, Ms de Kraker said her article had been well-received by the scientific community – many had long doubted the figure and are reportedly glad it has finally been disputed. Petra Gastmeier, director of the Institute of Hygiene and Environmental Medicine at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin – not involved in the study – agreed with its conclusions, saying “the authors have shown the mistakes of the British study step-by-step”. But neither scientist would provide their own estimates, saying there were too many uncertainties and not enough data. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/antimicrobial-resistance-superbugs-death-toll-new-study-flawed-assumptions-british-amr-review-david-cameron-a7481396.html
